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Midterm elections | Our guide to follow the day

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Tuesday’s midterm elections have rarely attracted so much attention, because many of the Republican candidates likely to be elected are close to Donald Trump – who has his sights set on the 2024 presidential election. And because the Democrats , led by an unpopular Joe Biden, sound the tocsin of serious threats to democracy. Here is our guide to follow this day.

Who is up for election?

All members (435) of the United States Congress House of Representatives, as well as 35 of the 100 senators.

In the states, 36 of the 50 governorships and many elective positions: representatives, senators, lieutenant governors, secretaries of state, judges, etc.

Also in the States, certain referendum questions are to be followed. In Alabama, a referendum is held on the forced labor of prisoners. In California, voters must decide on access to online sports betting.

Five states offer questions about abortion. Others look at the decriminalization of marijuana, raising the minimum wage, etc.


PHOTO J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES

The 435 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake in the midterm elections.

The mandate

The terms of federally elected representatives and senators will begin on January 3, 2023, at the opening of the 118e Congress.

Representatives are elected for two years and senators for six years.

What is the current picture?

There are currently 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House of Representatives. Three seats are vacant. In the Senate, there are 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans and two independents who often vote with Democrats. When there is a tie (50-50), it is the President of the Senate and American Vice-President Kamala Harris who decides… in favor of the Democrats.

Voting hours


PHOTO GAELEN MORSE, REUTERS

Voters voting in advance polls in Columbus, Ohio on 1er november

States manage the electoral process. The opening and closing hours of polling stations vary from place to place. They can vary within a state, if it has more than one time zone.

Here, in Eastern Standard Time in all cases, are the main business closing times in states to follow: Florida and Georgia (7 p.m.), Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, Illinois (8 p.m.), New York, Wisconsin, Arizona (9 p.m.), Nevada (10 p.m.), California (11 p.m.).

What are the main issues?


PHOTO EVELYN HOCKSTEIN, REUTERS

People demonstrate against abortion outside a family planning clinic in Westland, Michigan, where voters will vote on a measure that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution.

A recent poll by the Pew Research Center shows that 79% of voters say that the good performance of the economy is “very important” in guiding their choice. This rate reaches 92% among Republicans. The themes of the future of democracy (70%), education (64%), health care (63%), energy policies (61%) and violent crime (61%) follow. Abortion is considered a “very important” theme by 56% of voters, while immigration is at 54% and climate change at 38%.

What are the polls saying?


PHOTO CARLOS BARRIA, REUTERS ARCHIVES

Voters outside a polling station in Mableton, Georgia on Friday

Republicans experienced a drop in support over the summer following unpopular Supreme Court rulings, including on abortion. But they regained the lead in the polls on worries about inflation and the economy.

According to fivethirtyeight.com, Republicans have an 80% chance of winning between 214 and 246 seats (the majority is 218).

In the Senate, it is tighter. A 50-50 tie is still possible. The site fivethirtyeight.com gives Republicans an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 54 seats after the election, but the race is very tight in several states.

If Republicans win back the House…


PHOTO EVELYN HOCKSTEIN, REUTERS ARCHIVES

Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader

If, as the polls predict, Republicans regain control of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi will lose the presidency (speaker). The current minority leader – Kevin McCarthy, close to Donald Trump – is likely to replace her. One of the first things the Republicans would do would be to put an end to the January 6 commission. They could also trigger impeachment proceedings (impeachment) against Joe Biden, launching an investigation into Hunter Biden, the president’s son, suspected of corruption, reducing aid to Ukraine, etc.

How to follow the evening?


PHOTO J. DAVID AKE, ASSOCIATED PRESS

118e The United States Congress will be in office for the second half of Joe Biden’s term as president.

On the website and on the mobile application of The Press, we can follow the results live through a chat. This chat will resume on Wednesday morning. A newsroom team will prepare several stories to read on lapresse.ca, in our mobile application and in The Press+ from Wednesday 9 November. On television, you can follow the election results on RDI, LCN and, of course, on all the major American channels. On the internet, politico.com is one of many sites that will provide comprehensive results coverage.

Sources: 270towin.com, fivethirtyeight.com, Pew Research Center, Yahoo!, The Hill, Politico, Los Angeles TimesPolitics

Secretary of State positions

Normally, the elections of the Secretaries of State are little covered. But the fact that these elected officials have the responsibility to recognize the validity of votes at the federal level has taken on paramount importance since the 2020 presidential election. Thus, in Arizona, Republican candidate Mark Finchem has often said that he would not have recognized Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona in 2020. If he is elected, and he is ahead in the polls, what will happen in the face of a close vote in the presidential election of 2024?



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