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Midterm elections | The end of one campaign… and the beginning of another

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(New York) Americans have already contemplated, the day after a poll held on November 8, an unexpected result: the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.

Six years later, the midterm elections could pave the way for a new presidential campaign for the former Republican president and pose the question of the political viability of his Democratic successor, Joe Biden, if forecasts of a red wave materialize.

They could also turn into chaos, if candidates refuse to accept defeat, as Donald Trump has already done. However, according to a census of washington postnearly 300 of the Republican candidates running have denied or questioned the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Hence the refrain sung by many observers that the very future of American democracy is being played out on Tuesday. Remarkable fact: a large majority of Democratic and Republican voters agree that this democracy is indeed in danger, according to a poll recently published by the New York Times. But they attribute the cause to the opposing party.

Message that Joe Biden and Donald Trump each hammered out on their own in the final days of the campaign.

“You can’t say you’re a democracy or you support democratic principles if you say, ‘The only election that’s fair is the one I win,'” said the Democratic president, who ended the campaign in Maryland. Monday evening.

His Republican predecessor, whose last election meeting was held in Ohio, countered: “Every free and loving American must understand that it is time to stand against this growing tyranny of the left. »

It was rumored on Monday that he would announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election at this meeting. It did not materialize.

“I’m going to make a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago,” said Donald Trump at the end of a river speech. “We don’t want to take away from the importance of tomorrow. »

Record advance voting

The midterm elections involve the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, and numerous positions of governor, attorney general and secretary of state, among others.

More than 43 million voters have already voted in advance, a record. Another record: 16.7 billion dollars were spent by candidates, parties and independent groups, unheard of during a non-presidential campaign.

After a long and turbulent campaign in which issues favoring Republicans – the economy, inflation and crime – ended up relegating the favorite issues of the Democrats – abortion and democracy – to the background, Donald Trump’s party seems sure to change the political game in Washington.

Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to claim a majority in the House.

However, forecasters are now predicting a harvest of 20 seats and more, some of which are in blue states such as California, Oregon, Rhode Island and New York State.

In the home stretch of the campaign, the odds of a Republican takeover of the Senate also increased. A net gain of just one seat would allow the Grand Old Party to control the agenda in the Upper House of Congress for the last two years of Joe Biden’s term.

Trump backers

The tightest senatorial elections are held in the following states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

In three of those states, Donald Trump has chosen or endorsed neophyte candidates — Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona — whose results will weigh on his own political future. If the Republicans let their chances of taking control of the Senate slip away, he would be blamed in good part. On the other hand, he could show off if the opposite scenario occurs.

Several elections for governor or secretary of state attract attention because of the role that the winners will have to play in certifying the results of the 2024 presidential election. are vying for these positions in several key states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan.

The latest trips by Joe Biden and Donald Trump also illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of both sides.


PHOTO SUSAN WALSH, ASSOCIATED PRESS

President Joe Biden poses for a photo with Democratic candidate for governor of Maryland Wes Moore at a rally in the same state on Monday evening.

The Democratic president campaigned in New York’s northern suburbs on Sunday alongside state Governor Kathy Hochul, engaged in a much tighter-than-expected race against Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin. In the 2018 midterm elections, voters in the American suburbs, and especially white women, played a decisive role in the triumph of the Democrats. This year, many of them seem to want to defect to the Republicans, in particular because of the rise in crime in major American cities.

For his part, Donald Trump was in Miami, long considered a Democratic stronghold. However, the Republicans have good hopes of continuing to make gains among the Hispanic electorate of this city, as in several other American cities, from Las Vegas to Philadelphia via Phoenix.

In the long term, this trend is probably more worrisome to Democrats than the shifting vote of suburban voters.

Nevertheless: an electoral verdict allowing the Republicans to make gains of around twenty seats in the House and two or three seats in the Senate would not be exceptional. On the contrary, it would be rather banal.

Because voters are used to punishing the president’s party during the midterm elections that follow his arrival in the White House. What’s more, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, to name just two presidents, saw the opposition achieve gains of 40+ seats in the House of Representatives in their first or only midterm elections.

In fact, the Democrats could congratulate themselves on having limited the damage. Especially if they manage to retain control of the Senate, which would be no small feat.

But a Republican double in Congress could have unprecedented and unpredictable consequences, in particular on the certification of the presidential election of 2024.

Such a result could also accentuate the Democrats’ growing doubts about the advisability of a final presidential campaign for Joe Biden. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have certainly succeeded in being re-elected after suffering historic thaws during their first mid-term elections.

But they had barely turned 50 when they began their second term. Joe Biden will celebrate his 80e birthday on November 20.



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